{"title":"Previsión del precio de la vivienda a 12 meses — Madrid","geography":"Comunidad de Madrid","method":"Momentum amortiguado: previsión ≈ 0.95·(variación interanual actual) + 0.05·(media histórica). α ajustado por validación walk-forward sobre el INE IPV.","latest_quarter":{"year":2025,"quarter":4,"yoy":14.2},"longrun_mean":1.7,"alpha":0.95,"forecast_12m":13.6,"band":4.9,"backtest":{"mae_pp":4.9,"direction_hit_pct":85,"n":60,"series":[{"year":2011,"quarter":1,"predicted":-2.5,"realized":-3.1},{"year":2011,"quarter":2,"predicted":1,"realized":-7.1},{"year":2011,"quarter":3,"predicted":0.5,"realized":-8.9},{"year":2011,"quarter":4,"predicted":1.3,"realized":-15.7},{"year":2012,"quarter":1,"predicted":-3.1,"realized":-14.2},{"year":2012,"quarter":2,"predicted":-7,"realized":-16},{"year":2012,"quarter":3,"predicted":-8.7,"realized":-17.9},{"year":2012,"quarter":4,"predicted":-15.2,"realized":-13.1},{"year":2013,"quarter":1,"predicted":-13.9,"realized":-16.8},{"year":2013,"quarter":2,"predicted":-15.6,"realized":-13.2},{"year":2013,"quarter":3,"predicted":-17.4,"realized":-8.2},{"year":2013,"quarter":4,"predicted":-12.8,"realized":-6.5},{"year":2014,"quarter":1,"predicted":-16.3,"realized":1.9},{"year":2014,"quarter":2,"predicted":-13,"realized":2.7},{"year":2014,"quarter":3,"predicted":-8.2,"realized":2.8},{"year":2014,"quarter":4,"predicted":-6.6,"realized":2.9},{"year":2015,"quarter":1,"predicted":1.4,"realized":2.3},{"year":2015,"quarter":2,"predicted":2.2,"realized":6.4},{"year":2015,"quarter":3,"predicted":2.3,"realized":6.9},{"year":2015,"quarter":4,"predicted":2.4,"realized":7.3},{"year":2016,"quarter":1,"predicted":1.9,"realized":9.7},{"year":2016,"quarter":2,"predicted":5.7,"realized":7.8},{"year":2016,"quarter":3,"predicted":6.3,"realized":7.8},{"year":2016,"quarter":4,"predicted":6.7,"realized":9},{"year":2017,"quarter":1,"predicted":9,"realized":10.6},{"year":2017,"quarter":2,"predicted":7.1,"realized":10.9},{"year":2017,"quarter":3,"predicted":7.2,"realized":12.3},{"year":2017,"quarter":4,"predicted":8.4,"realized":11.9},{"year":2018,"quarter":1,"predicted":9.9,"realized":10.2},{"year":2018,"quarter":2,"predicted":10.2,"realized":10.1},{"year":2018,"quarter":3,"predicted":11.6,"realized":10.9},{"year":2018,"quarter":4,"predicted":11.2,"realized":9.6},{"year":2019,"quarter":1,"predicted":9.6,"realized":9.7},{"year":2019,"quarter":2,"predicted":9.5,"realized":6.5},{"year":2019,"quarter":3,"predicted":10.3,"realized":4.6},{"year":2019,"quarter":4,"predicted":9,"realized":2.9},{"year":2020,"quarter":1,"predicted":9.2,"realized":2.5},{"year":2020,"quarter":2,"predicted":6.1,"realized":1.7},{"year":2020,"quarter":3,"predicted":4.3,"realized":1.2},{"year":2020,"quarter":4,"predicted":2.8,"realized":1.5},{"year":2021,"quarter":1,"predicted":2.4,"realized":0},{"year":2021,"quarter":2,"predicted":1.6,"realized":1.9},{"year":2021,"quarter":3,"predicted":1.1,"realized":2.8},{"year":2021,"quarter":4,"predicted":1.4,"realized":5.5},{"year":2022,"quarter":1,"predicted":0,"realized":7.5},{"year":2022,"quarter":2,"predicted":1.8,"realized":7.3},{"year":2022,"quarter":3,"predicted":2.7,"realized":7.6},{"year":2022,"quarter":4,"predicted":5.2,"realized":4.9},{"year":2023,"quarter":1,"predicted":7.1,"realized":3.1},{"year":2023,"quarter":2,"predicted":6.9,"realized":4.1},{"year":2023,"quarter":3,"predicted":7.2,"realized":4.1},{"year":2023,"quarter":4,"predicted":4.7,"realized":4.5},{"year":2024,"quarter":1,"predicted":2.9,"realized":5.9},{"year":2024,"quarter":2,"predicted":3.9,"realized":7.2},{"year":2024,"quarter":3,"predicted":3.9,"realized":7.2},{"year":2024,"quarter":4,"predicted":4.3,"realized":10.3},{"year":2025,"quarter":1,"predicted":5.6,"realized":11.6},{"year":2025,"quarter":2,"predicted":6.9,"realized":13.3},{"year":2025,"quarter":3,"predicted":6.9,"realized":14.2},{"year":2025,"quarter":4,"predicted":9.9,"realized":14.2}]},"source":"Fuente: INE, Índice de Precios de Vivienda (Comunidad de Madrid)","sourceUrl":"https://www.ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/es/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736152838","disclaimer":"Modelo simple a nivel de ciudad (Comunidad de Madrid); omite inventario, días en el mercado y rebajas de precio (datos de portales no reutilizables). No es consejo de inversión."}